Workflow · Markets

Size a Market

Build a defensible size for a market — bottom-up, with segments and growth drivers made explicit — so the number can be trusted and defended, not just quoted.

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Question it answers

How large is this market, how fast is it growing, and which segments matter?

Inputs

· Market definition
· Scope (geography / segment)
· Sizing horizon
· Comparable benchmarks

Steps

1. Define the boundaries — Fix what is in and out of the market, so the size answers a specific question rather than a category.
2. Build the size bottom-up — Size from demand build-up — units, price, attach — rather than a top-down TAM headline.
3. Break out segments — Split the market into the segments that behave differently, so the mix is visible.
4. Model growth drivers — Attribute growth to its drivers and project a range, not a single line.
5. State confidence & gaps — Grade the estimate's confidence and name the assumptions that most move it.