Workflow · Risk

Assess Opportunity Risk

Stress-test an opportunity or thesis against what could weaken it — surfacing the risks, sizing likelihood and impact, and recommending mitigations and what to watch.

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Question it answers

What could weaken this opportunity or thesis, and how exposed are we?

Inputs

· Opportunity or thesis
· Scope
· Risk categories
· Confidence in key evidence

Steps

1. Restate the thesis — State the opportunity and the assumptions it rests on, so the risks attach to something specific.
2. Identify the risks — Surface what could weaken the thesis — market, competitive, execution, evidence.
3. Rate likelihood & impact — Rate each risk on likelihood and impact to separate the material from the noise.
4. Frame mitigations — For the material risks, frame the mitigation or the evidence that would de-risk it.
5. Recommend what to watch — Recommend the leading signals to monitor that would flag a risk turning real.